Trump

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Will all living presidents attend Trump’s inauguration?YES

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Will Donald Trump NOT be inaugurated?NO

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What will Trump do on Day 1 of being President?

74%

Criticize Joe Biden by name

1.0%

Nothing particularly noteworthy, according to a Manifold poll

Resolved

YES

Pardon at least 1 J6 participant

Resolved

YES

End birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants through executive action

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Trump impose large tariffs in first year?77% chance

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Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?59% chance

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What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

14%

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

21%

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

65%

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

25%

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

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What will Trump's first executive order be about?

32%0.9%

Government/Regulations/Elections

21%43%Other

13%0.3%

Climate Change/The Environment/Energy

13%0.2%

Healthcare/ACA

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Will Donald Trump repay Elon Musk's backing in good faith?YES

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Will Trump publicly disparage Musk within a year of the election?27% chance

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If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?76% chance

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If Trump is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?YES

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Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?41% chance

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When will Trump serve time?

92%

Never

0%

2023 (NO)

0.1%

2024

0.5%

2025

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