Resolves based on my subjective opinion, to the most applicable option. If multiple options are clearly applicable (eg. "This order adds tariffs and withdraws the US from NATO", it resolves to the options equally). If you would like to add more options, feel free to suggest.
Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Executive orders must be subtitled "EXECUTIVE ORDER" rather than "A PROCLAMATION" to count for this market. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Resolution Method:
Review each repealed executive order
Categorize them based on their purpose (e.g., climate change, DEI, COVID, immigration, voting access, energy, racial equity)
Proportionally resolve the market according to these categories (AI summary of creator comment)
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I've resolved it based on my determinations. The full list with categorization is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1f7z3_AjlLr_bLUxQipwIeMCnI0EwfvDj6Q6DtBkQtwM/view
The first executive order seems to have been about repealing past executive orders on many other topics, including climate change, DEI, COVID, immigration, voting access, energy, racial equity, and more.
Does anyone have ways they would recommend resolving this? I’m leaning towards going through every repealed order, categorizing them according to their purpose, and then proportionally resolving the market.
@Gabrielle maybe identify which of the above categories are applicable, and then evenly divide the resolution between those categories.
I've closed the market while I investigate whether https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/flying-the-flag-of-the-united-states-at-full-staff-on-inauguration-day/ counts as an executive order or not.
I've confirmed that this is not an executive order and it will not count for this market. The clearest proof is that executive orders will be subtitled "EXECUTIVE ORDER" rather than "A PROCLAMATION".
This category also includes oil drilling, renewable energy, nuclear energy, coal mining, pipelines, natural gas, and similar topics.
Do you have in mind what the first 24 to 48 hours will look like?
I'll be looking at J6 early on, maybe the first nine minutes.
https://time.com/7201565/person-of-the-year-2024-donald-trump-transcript/
@ChrisMillsc5f7 If it was just about the WHO, it would be 50% healthcare, 50% foreign policy. Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement would be 100% Climate Change/The Environment (a new category).
It's not a perfect arb for a few reasons, but I think there might be something here: https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-trumps-first-executive-order-b
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00