⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2024? (16 DONE)

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Jan 1

11%

next version of Chat GPT (4.5 or 5) releases to the general userbase

10%

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

Taylor Swift announces engagement or marriage

Rust (game) adds pets to the official servers

Manifold (the company) announces they have raised more money through grant/investors/etc

Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape

the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses before EOY

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)

Twitter gets a new CEO

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

Manifold reaches 12,000 Monthly active users

2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken

Israel and Hamas announce an end to immediate hostilities (not just a temporary ceasefire)

Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users

1.5%

Tom Scott's 'this video hax X views' video reaches 80M views

The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.

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next year! /strutheo/of-these-40-events-which-will-be-th-Sn9LE6ghzg

@strutheo 25 Aug 2022

^ ?

https://store.steampowered.com/app/2291060/EARTH_DEFENSE_FORCE_6/

Yeah I know, but it didn't mention steam. Anyway are you resolving it as 25 July 2024?

Oh woops. Yes I meant steam. Yes that day

@strutheo You said yes, but not resolved for a while.

reposted

releases in 2-3 days

bought Ṁ100 YES

earth defense force 6 release date - july 25 announced

bought Ṁ250 YES

Hades 2 is out this morning!

seem like quite a lot of unboxings, so I think this can resolve

bought Ṁ200 YES

This should resolve YES:
https://llama.meta.com/llama3/

bought Ṁ2,700 YES

reached

reposted

april bump

bought Ṁ1,130 YES

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/tesla-battery-catches-fire-illinois-shutting-down-highway-hours-report

If OpenAI releases a major successor to GPT-4, but it is not called GPT-5, will this resolve YES?

@chris if they call it 4.5 or 5 ill resolve yes, but not if it is just a small improvement on 4 itself

bought Ṁ100 NO

@strutheo How about if they call it something completely new (new naming scheme)

i think 4o is .5-like enough for this to resolve yes, at least when the voice modality is made available

reddit IPO is 7th

bought Ṁ20 YES

6/20 complete now

Over 6.8M

After 85 "This will be my final Chris Chan doc for a good long while, possibly a year or longer."

In the world? Does that mean an Ioquake could qualify? Or is that ruled out by using term earthquake? Anyway it is not likely that we get a measurement. So really wondering if this should say on Earth rather than in the world.

@ChristopherRandles world = earth here lol

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