☃️What will happen in December 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]

Plus

Ṁ12k

Jan 1

99.1%

NASDAQ hits an all time high

99%

Someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump receives an electoral vote

99%

Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month

98.7%

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

72%

Penn State football advances to round of eight

63%

web3isgoinggreat makes at least 20 posts this month

33%

For the first time, weak AGI is declared to have been achieved by a majority of Manifold respondents in the monthly poll

33%

2 or more inches of snow fall in nyc

28%

Jimmy Carter says something

28%

another right wing media persona is revealed to have taken russia money

25%

at least 1 inch of snow on the ground already on christmas day in NYC

25%

One or more faithless electors

23%

>= 20% of Manifold respondents believe that weak superintelligence has been achieved in the monthly poll

14%

at least 1 inch of snow freshly falls in NYC on christmas day

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on lebanon

8.0+ magnitude earthquake

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

new charges brought against trump

Coup attempt in the United States

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#What Will Happen Markets

#December

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@strutheo https://www.yahoo.com/news/two-dead-tesla-crash-fire-170615843.html

bought Ṁ673 YES

@strutheo
today Open 19,255.43 High 19,436.92
52-wk high 19,436.92
Previously
Category All-Time Highs Closing 19,298.76 Monday, November 11, 2024
Intraday 19,366.07 Monday, November 11, 2024
so hit intraday record

bought Ṁ50 NO

To clarify here for bettors, "for the first time weak AGI is achieved" means that the majority threshold has to occur in December 2024, by the plain reading of the text.

There is a possibility that the standing results of the November 2024 poll will hold, and a majority will declare weak AGI achieved in November, resolving this question NO.

sold Ṁ22 YES

@AlexanderMiller wait, doesn't the electoral college vote happen in January, and the election was back in November?

bought Ṁ100 YES

@AlexanderMiller lol

lol wow

bought Ṁ40 NO

A quick Google suggests he doesn't have his own social media, just shared Ant & Dec social media. How to resolve if e.g. the @AntAndDec Twitter account tweets on one of these topics?

@MugaSofer I'll count that then haha

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