On January 27, 2025, Trump signed an executive order (“The Iron Dome for America”) directing the DoD to design a next-gen missile shield. That month, the project was publicly re-branded as “Golden Dome for America."
$25bln of the $175bln price tag for building the Golden Dome is allocated in Trumps "Big Beautiful Bill" which has passed the house and is currently with the Senate at the time of market creation.
This market will resolve YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025, the United States government formally approves funding or construction for the Golden Dome missile defence system.
Resolves Yes if:
A federal budget, appropriations measure, or omnibus spending bill is passed and signed into law that includes at least $25 billion in funding explicitly designated for the Golden Dome, as part of its development or initial construction phase.
A Department of Defence or federal agency contract is publicly awarded for the construction or system development of the Golden Dome program.
A White House or DoD press release, directive, or policy document formally announces that construction of the Golden Dome system has begun.
For the purposes of this market, the $25 billion figure included in the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) will be considered sufficient for a YES resolution if it is passed and signed into law, as it represents the initial phase of the Golden Dome creation.
If none of the above by the end of the year, market will resolve No.
Rhetoric alone (e.g., speeches, social posts, interviews, or references to “funding requests”) is insufficient.
1,000
3.00If Trump signs the bill, this should resolve YES, according to this provision:
>For the purposes of this market, the $25 billion figure included in the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) will be considered sufficient for a YES resolution if it is passed and signed into law, as it represents the initial phase of the Golden Dome creation.
There are several technicalities here. Firstly, neither the House nor Senate-passed versions of H.R. 1 explicitly refer to a "Golden Dome" program, however, all of the funding associated with the Golden Dome is outlined under Title II Sec. 20003. Due to the news reporting of how this funding is associated with the "Golden Dome" program, it seems in the spirit of the market to refer to this funding as funding for the Golden Dome, even if it isn't explicitly referred to as such.
Secondly, the total funding in neither the House nor Senate passed versions of Sec. 20003 reached 25 billion, they were both around 24.6 billion. It seems against the spirit of the market to make this count against a YES resolution, because the media reporting that the premise of this market is based upon rounded that figure up to 25 billion.