@SirSalty has approved the updated criteria for this market. Reopening until the end of 2025.

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For the purposes of this market, a "Major Bridge" is any bridge on the National Bridge Inventory with a deck area of greater than 2,500 square meters (column DECK_AREA) OR greater than 50,000 average daily traffic (column ADT).

To give participants a size reference, 2,500 square meters is 26,921 square feet, roughly half of an American football field, or about the size of a typical 4 lane bridge with a total length of 125 meters. There appear to be about 22,000 bridges in the USA that meet this criteria, and they are the largest ~3.5% of bridges in the National Bridge Inventory.

• If the bridge falls while being intentionally removed, that is not a collapse.

• If some components of the bridge fall, but the bridge does not collapse, that is not a collapse. In a bridge collapse, normally a significant amount of decking falls away. Major structural members between supports can also fail. Whether a bridge 'collapsed' is usually a 'know it when you see it' event and if there is a question of whether a bridge collapsed or not, it will depend on the circumstances.

• Bridges not on the list will not count.

@Eliza

@Eliza If anyone participating on this question really wants rail or pedestrian bridges to count, please come up with an objective measurement that is in line with the National Bridge Inventory one, and we can certainly add it. But you will have to do this before that bridge collapses.

@mods https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/10/17/mississippi-bridge-collapse-simpson-county-strong-river/75712876007/

Mississippi bridge collapse in Simpson County during demolition leaves 3 dead, 4 injured

A bridge located over the Strong River in Simpson County, Mississippi, collapsed. Three people were killed and four were injured, authorities say.

@datachef this must count. People dying = major.

@datachef I'll close trading for now so this can be discussed without causing wild trading swings.

You have indicated that people dying=major, but I thought this was about a "major bridge" rather than how serious its collapse was.

Maybe someone else will weigh in., or offer to take over control of this market to clarify what we are betting on. The original creator has been banned.

Edit: Having a thorough discussion on the issue on Discord: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1158528733444055071/1296664248457367614

@datachef @SirSalty @traders

I worked with @EvanDaniel to come up with some criteria for this market since we have had trouble several times figuring out if a bridge collapse counts for this market's purposes.

1. My understanding of the moderation guidelines is that any criteria I propose aren't rock solid until @SirSalty approves them because this market has fewer than 40 traders. With his blessing.....

2. We're both in agreement that this market will be better off if we define it to be for a [major bridge] collapse, rather than a major [bridge collapse]. There is a separate market about a bridge collapse causing fatalities that should count for the sake of a major [bridge collapse]: /Michael43cd/will-a-major-bridge-collapse-causin

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Proposed new criteria:

For the purposes of this market, a "Major Bridge" is any bridge on the National Bridge Inventory with a deck area of greater than 2,500 square meters (column DECK_AREA) OR greater than 50,000 average daily traffic (column ADT).

To give participants a size reference, 2,500 square meters is 26,921 square feet, roughly half of an American football field, or about the size of a typical 4 lane bridge with a total length of 125 meters. There appear to be about 22,000 bridges in the USA that meet this criteria, and they are the largest ~3.5% of bridges in the National Bridge Inventory.

• If the bridge falls while being intentionally removed, that is not a collapse.

• If some components of the bridge fall, but the bridge does not collapse, that is not a collapse. In a bridge collapse, normally a significant amount of decking falls away. Major structural members between supports can also fail. Whether a bridge 'collapsed' is usually a 'know it when you see it' event and if there is a question of whether a bridge collapsed or not, it will depend on the circumstances.

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Request for comments on the above -- and if you think you have very strong feelings on any of these points, make your position known!

• If a bridge that is NOT on the list at all, for whatever reason (rail bridge, pedestrian bridge, some other kind of bridge....) collapses, should there be some criteria to count it? If you want these other bridge types to count, come up with an objective measure and we can incorporate it. (I don't think the rail bridge examples below should have counted.)

• If you feel very strongly that the 2500 square meters mark is not an appropriate level to set the criteria, explain why. We originally looked at the top 1% and it felt too restrictive. This size includes many past notable incidents like the Fern Hollow bridge collapse.

@Eliza this is very much inconsistent with previous mods comments.

@datachef Where are the other comments you are referring to? I see three moderator comments below, two of which specifically state that they are looking for a "major bridge".

@datachef I agree with Eliza

@Eliza this question obviously was created right after Francis Scott Key collapse which actually wasn’t a collapse it was a ramming. This was an actual bridge failure.

But I do understand the alternative reading of the question.

@datachef If that is your point of confusion -- the Francis Scott Key bridge collapse absolutely would have counted under the proposed criteria (except for the fact that it was too early for this market).

• It was on the list of bridges

• It was larger than the target figures for being a 'major bridge'

• It collapsed

So if that happened again, this would resolve Yes.

@datachef The reading I had in mind during the discussion is that the Francis Scott Key bridge collapsed after the collision. It wasn't being "intentionally removed", so that exception doesn't apply. If that wording isn't clear, could you explain in more detail and/or suggest alternative wording?

https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cv22gej431do

This is a pretty major bridge from a commercial perspective. @mods

I don't think this counts as a major bridge. It doesn't even have a name and only one lane.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/wireStory/rail-bridge-collapses-us-canada-border-112898270

Rail bridge collapses near the US-Canada border

A century-old rail lift bridge near the U.S.-Canada border has collapsed

This one has a name and also happened in the last few days.

That bridge is not in the US.

I marked the ticket as resolved, it doesn't look like either of these are major us bridges