Background
The Los Angeles wildfires have caused widespread devastation across Southern California. What will the total economic damage be?
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on the final official economic damage assessment released by the National Center for Environmental Information, California state government, or another authoritative source. If multiple credible sources provide different estimates, the market will resolve based on the most comprehensive assessment. I anticipate the estimate to be available with a few months of the fire containment, but if no comprehensive assessment is available in a reasonable timeframe, the market will resolve based on the most authoritative estimate available at the time of resolution. The economic damage estimates may combine several named fires in the same area starting around the same time.
Update 2025-24-01 (PST): - If data from the official sources is unavailable due to a blanket ban on federal agencies communicating with the public, the market will resolve immediately based on the most authoritative estimate available. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ174 | |
| 2 | Ṁ9 |
@traders - We might not get the data from the official source I was hoping to use due to the blanket ban on federal agencies communicating with the public. This is a minor thing relative to the stoppage of all the research funding evaluations, but I think it's safe to resolve this now.
Any objections?
@gamedev It's looking like I was not nearly pessimistic enough here. The NCEI will release January data on Feb 10. I might resolve earlier, but I'm not going to do it on a news article. I want to see it from a primary source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/summary-stats#temporal-comparison-stats
@WilliamGunn Yeah fair enough, I wasn't pressure you to resolve early, I have just been blown away at how high damage estimates already are
I mean I saw an estimate earlier today putting it at 50 billion, and the fires are not even done starting
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00