33 million acres of forest in California, so even 2020s fire rate won't necessarily run out of fuel. - no effect on trend

Areas of highest risk of fire starting might already be burned out. - possible down trend?

Utility companies bad maintenance triggering fires likely to continue - possible up trend?

Drought likely to continue - possible up trend?

@CromlynGames I don't buy the utility company thing being significant. If there are fire prone regions, then something will start one, be it sparks from a car, lightning, or whatever.

Drought seems like biggest reason to be pessimistic, high risk areas already having burnt seems like the main reason to be optimistic

@VivaLaPanda I don't live there, so the only info I have is a friend occasionally having power cuts as the local grid has to shut down on fire risk days.