Conditional on Trump elected, will there be more wildfire acreage burnt in California in 2024-2028 than in 2020-2024?
Conditional on Trump elected, will there be more wildfire acreage burnt in California in 2024-2028 than in 2020-2024?
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Gavin Newsome has stated that Trump withheld federal funds from California during his first term. During Trump's first term, there were many significant wildfires. I'm wondering whether a Trump second term implies another bad wildfire year or two.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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