Before which date at midnight EDT in 2025 will any model conquer Pokémon Red or Blue?
15
Ṁ932
Jul 15
3%
April 22
4%
April 30
5%
May 8
9%
May 15
12%
May 23
13%
May 31
15%
June 8
21%
June 15
22%
June 22
24%
June 30
34%
July 8
34%
July 15
34%
July 23
36%
July 31
38%
August 8
38%
August 15
38%
August 23
48%
August 31
50%
September 8
51%
September 22

Multiple LLMs are now playing and advancing through the Pokémon Red and Blue games (which are mostly identical in gameplay.)

This market will resolve all the times to YES that occur after the time when an AI model satisfies the criteria of an Any % speedrun for either game, landing the final blow on the final boss. Answers where time runs out first will resolve to NO. It is also possible that, if LLM progress does not advance at the same rate it has been, all answers could resolve to NO.

The same model version must have played through the entire game from start to finish, although the developer is permitted to make changes to its settings. The model that beats the game can be run in an official capacity by the company or by a third-party developer.

  • Update 2025-04-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Human intervention disqualification: If a human ever presses the game buttons or directly instructs the model to take a specific action at any point during the run, that run is disqualified.

    • Allowed prompt adjustments: Changing prompts during the run (e.g., modifying settings like using 8 memory files instead of 4) remains valid, provided no direct human input controls game actions.

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Is Gemini plays being considered here? Contestable whether the model is the only one playing

@JoeandSeth Yes. If a human ever actually presses the buttons in the game, or instructs the model to take a specific action, that disqualifies the run.

Otherwise, changing the prompts during the run to say things like "use 8 memory files instead of 4" is valid.

@SteveSokolowski iirc early in the run Gemini did have exact English instruction given for a position to navigate to

Low confidence, I only heard it from the chat, didn't see it myself. But this would dq that instance?

@JoeandSeth I've heard, but can't be confident, that Gemini's developer has been modifying the prompts as the run goes on. If it completes the game, then I'm sure that someone will investigate the actual prompts and the truth will come out.

If it does complete the game though, then it's likely he will just run it again from the start and it should be able to do it without further changes, which would delay the resolution date.

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