Technical AI Timelines

This is a group for AI timelines with a focus on the near-term, the specific, the measurable, and the objective. There is wiggle room on each of those, in particular for the last since many interesting questions will always have subjective resolution criteria, but I will remove questions from the group if I don't feel they mostly meet these criteria.

In particular questions like "When will AGI be developed" are flat banned, unless the description includes a detailed and measurable definition of "AGI" for the purposes of the question.

"Technical" here means that the questions should be about the technical details of AI - questions about the general industry (e.g. "Will Google invest >$100 billion in AI in 2023"), regulation ("Will the US ban AI research by 2026?"), public perception ("Will most Americans favor AI in 2027?") etc. are all off topic. On the borderline are questions like "Will company X release a model with capabilities Y?".