Trump approval rating 45.0% or higher on Feb 20th? | Manifold

Trump approval rating 45.0% or higher on Feb 20th?

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Market will resolve to YES if 45.0% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated February 20th, 2025 (or next available data point after Feb 20th) on 538's approval tracker.

Such a page does not currently exist for Donald Trump's second term, but is expected to be published after inauguration. For reference, see past trackers https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ and https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/. If 538 does not publish a tracker by February 20th, a suitable alternative tracker will be used.

Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative Data Source:
- RCP (RealClearPolitics) will be used as the backup option if 538 does not maintain the presidential approval tracker.
- For reference, RCP currently has Biden approval about 1% higher than 538.

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

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#Trump's Second Term

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How will this resolve if 538 shuts down or is no longer maintaining a presidential approval tracker?

@JaySocrates RCP would be the most likely backup option. For reference, RCP currently has Biden about 1% higher than 538.

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