A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-generated before April 1, 2026
32
Ṁ3759
2026
11%
chance

This market resolves YES if any major tech company (including but not limited to Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, or other publicly traded tech companies with market caps over $10 billion) officially reports that at least 98% of new code is being generated by AI tools before April 1st, 2026

The announcement must come through official channels such as company reports, press releases, earnings calls, or interviews with C-suite executives reported by reputable tech media outlets.

This is inspired by Dario Amodei claiming we may have virtually all code written by AI within 12 months (although prompting will still be expected(.

References:

  • Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification:

    • Assistance-only statements do not meet the criteria: If a report only mentions that AI provides assistance without specifying that the code is actually written by AI, it should resolve as No.

    • Primary requirement: The announcement must indicate that AI is the agent generating the code, not just assisting or reviewing it. The source must be credible.

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I’m skeptical that even Anthropic would be able to pull this off.

@jyscao I am as well. But I excluded them because the CEO has at least some motivation to make his predictions come true.

What date is this based on? April 1, 2026 as in the headline, or Dec 31, 2025 as in the description?

@PanAnon April, updated now. That was lingering form the AI suggestion, thanks for catching it

Does it need to be an American $10B+ company, or e.g. Chinese company statement credibly taken at face value could also resolve YES?

@HenriThunberg No problem on the country of origin, however the publicly traded part still stands, and the report needs to be reasonably credible.

If a company says that 98%+ of it's code is created with the assistance of AI without further detail, would that count to resolve this as yes?

I could foresee a major tech company saying that they have an AI code reviewer looking over 98%+ of their code, but that feels quite different than it truly being AI generated. But we might not get such specifics.

@MarcusM Hmm, if it only says assistance and no other details, then it should resolve No. The key point is AI writes the code, not reviews it or assists. It doesn't need to be agents, it's totally fine if its written by AI being prompted. In fact, that is what Dario describes in the reference.

this is for code written going forward, and not 98% of their entire code base, right?

@ian Yes, good call out! I will update

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