Will a major AI company acknowledge the possibility of conscious AIs by 2026?
Plus
57
Ṁ79482026
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Must be an official acknowledgment (e.g., statement, exploratory paper), not a random tweet by one employee
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Does this count? https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.12422
Release thread:
@GraceKind Thanks for bringing this to my attention! The paper notes:
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author (at the time of writing). They do not necessarily reflect the views of his employers or the institutions to which he is affiliated.
I think it would have to be reposted from the Google DeepMind website or Twitter or otherwise endorsed to qualify.
Related questions
Related questions
Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?
45% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
24% chance
Will a consumer-grade autonomous AI be released by an established tech firm by the end of 2024?
31% chance
Will OpenAI announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment in 2024?
19% chance
Will a major tech company announce a significant new AI regulation compliance feature by the end of 2024?
55% chance
Will there be a noticeable effort to increase AI transparency by 2025?
50% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
63% chance
What will Rob Long's credence be that there exists a conscious AI system at end of 2024?
17% chance
Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?
64% chance
Will a paper or report, with >=1 turing award winner as an author, suggest that an AI system is conscious, by 2024 end?
10% chance