Including tests, accidental detonations, etc.
Previous: Will a nuclear weapon cause over 1,000 deaths in 2023?NO
Edit 2023-09-21 to use the same definitions as this market:
The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
Any detonation of a nuclear weapon, whether test or non-test, deliberate or inadvertent or accidental, would count towards question resolution.
Detonation here means nuclear explosion. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count. If a nuclear weapon were launched but the nuclear weapon did not detonate, that would not count as detonation.
1,000
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I suggest using rules similar to the ones I've used in my questions:
fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonation-ca-1f2e9a9515f4
@jack thanks! My intent is to talk about new uses o of weapons, not residual deaths from past uses. Secondarily, it's to match other existing markets as closely as possible.
The 2023 version of this doesn't specify; if that author clarified a good answer I'd rather copy that than sorry about the exact details. Falling that I'll try to copy one of yours.
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00