🏅 Top traders

This needs some clarifications:

• Does it have to be 1000 caused by a single nuclear weapon, or 1000 total across all nuclear weapons?

• What deaths count? Immediate deaths only? Cancer deaths later? Deaths caused indirectly via infrastructure disruption, food supply disruption, etc?

• Do dirty bombs count?

You can see my nuclear questions as an example of some possible answers, although it is not necessarily the ones you want to use here: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonation-ca-1f2e9a9515f4

Will a nuclear weapon detonation cause at least 1 fatality, by end of 2024?

1.6% chance. Resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated and causes at least 1 fatality, after September 1, 2023 and before January 1, 2025. Otherwise NO. The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. Any detonation of a nuclear weapon, whether test or non-test, deliberate or inadvertent or accidental, would count towards question resolution. Detonation here means nuclear explosion. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count. If a nuclear weapon were launched but the nuclear weapon did not detonate, that would not count as detonation.

i traded under the impression that the deaths had to be directly due to a singular nuclear weapon detonation that occurs in 2023, and the deaths also occur in 2023 (due to the close date). the use of "a" in the title implies a singular weapon needs to be responsible, and not an aggregate of multiple.

@brubsby I agree with that interpretation. Of course it still ought to be made clearer, and some of the other questions are still unclear.

And I went ahead and made the 2024 version:
Will a nuclear weapon cause over 1,000 deaths in 2024?NO‌

Arbitrage with:
Will North Korea kill 1,000+ people before 2024 with nuclear strikes?NO‌
Will Russia kill 1,000+ people before 2024 with nuclear strikes?NO‌
Will the United States kill 1,000+ people before 2024 with nuclear strikes?NO‌

(Not a strict arbitrage, since the linked markets could resolve positively with multiple strikes that each cause < 1000 deaths, but probably close enough for most purposes.)