Background

The 2028 Democratic presidential nomination race is beginning to take shape, with several prominent figures emerging as potential candidates.

Resolution Criteria

For each candidate listed, the market will resolve YES if they:

• Officially announce their candidacy for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, OR

• File paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president as a Democrat in 2028, OR

• Takes part in an official Democratic presidential debate, OR

• Appear on any state's Democratic presidential primary ballot in 2028

The market will resolve NO for candidates who:

• Explicitly rule out running in the 2028 election during 2028

• Do not take any of the above actions

• Run as an independent or for another party's nomination

The resolution will be after Super Tuesday.

On Adding Answers:

• I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market

• If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A

Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. The unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

• Update 2024-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For a candidate to resolve to NO based on ruling out running, they must explicitly rule out running for election in the 2028 election during 2028 specifically

  • Previous statements ruling out running, in general, will not trigger a NO resolution unless they make the statements in 2028