Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention in 2028
Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention. If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention. Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"
Remember to bet for "Other". Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added
1,000
3.00
@Predictor Trump is considering a third term, and if they change something to make him eligible then Obama might become eligible too
@DylanSlagh How is he leading? California embodies the democratic policies/ideology that got Trump elected. The negative campaign ads write themselves.
@Shai Tons of delusional people on social media also believe Newsom has some sort of magic power to stop Trump from doing all he is doing cutrently and want Newsom to "speak up" and "get Trump out".
It's pretty funny, but also pretty damn sad they have no new path forward.
@Shai Newsom is one of Trump's favorite targets but that doesn't mean he embodies a specific set of policies or ideologies. Trump generally targets people he thinks are a populist threat. Charismatic leaders, social media savvy politicians... Newsom, AOC and Trump are ideologically equidistant from each other.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/16/politics/cnn-poll-democrats/index.html
I continue to bet up AOC here - people are significantly underestimating how the public will whipsaw from one extreme to the other, and she is now in the lead as to "who represents the party's values."
I sold my stake in her being elected President because I believe that Donald Trump is the most likely person to be reelected.
@SteveSokolowski There's a few reasons I'm not buying AOC right now:
- She may not decide to run, e.g. if she runs for Senator of New York instead. She's young - if she has presidential ambitions, she may still think it's in her best interest to wait for a higher chance of success.
- If she does run, I think a scenario similar to 2020 might play out, where the moderate candidates unite around one alternative to block the far-left candidate's nomination.
@SaviorofPlant If moderate candidates unite, I expect that Trump won't need to take any steps to assist in the vote going his way. People aren't looking for centrism, and they certainly won't be in a world that (at that time) will likely be dominated by new changes and consequences related to AI and majority acceptance of non-human intelligence.
This scrambled egg brain motherfucker shouldn't even be on this list. Straight to 0.1% on his ass.
@KnowNothing Cenk was born in Turkey and is ineligible for the role of president, lol
@DavidOman about half of these names are jokes / obviously impossible (Hunter Biden? Donald Trump?)
I think 17% is quite reasonable for "someone outside the top 30 or so contenders wins the primary 4 years from now", considering that it happened in 2008 with Obama and 2016 with Trump!