What will be "March 2020" for AGI?
Basic
11
Ṁ1359
2030
49%
Mass AI-driven job displacement event
45%
A government declaration/statement (any country)
41%
Reports about software
41%
Reports about financial activity
41%
Report about sociological observations
41%
Report about economic observations
41%
AI-related academic achievement
40%
Attack on civilian target
40%
Attack on military target
40%
AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat
39%
A statement from an individual (human)
38%
AI-related political movement (pro or anti)
38%
AI-related fake news
36%
A private company declaration/statement (any company)
35%
An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target
35%
Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)
35%
Military activity / posture change
34%
AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event
34%
An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event
30%
A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

From Dwarkesh Patel:

"I think we're at what late February 2020 was for COVID, but for AI. If you're paying attention, you kind of have an idea of the general direction in which the world is headed. You know that as was the case with COVID, within a very short amount of time, every single world leader, every single CEO, every single institution, members of the general public are going to realize pretty soon that the main thing we as a world are dealing with is COVID, or in this case, AI."

Market resolves to the first event that causes AI to become widely viewed as humanity's central challenge, similar to how COVID-19's pandemic declaration in March 2020 sparked global mobilization.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Wild

I suggest you put the end date back to 2031

@whybyfire think 2026 is too soon for this market

@MalachiteEagle yeah didn’t see i could do that when making the market. updating it now.

I guess this is roughly similar to asking about an "intimidating AI event" that's on the front page of every newspaper, the main story on every news website. I don't think maths problems, research papers and automation are likely to fit that framing.

I think it's more plausible that what will wake everyone up will be the unexpected actions of a nation state or major AI company. That suddenly everyone realises that the game is much further ahead than they thought and some players are making key unilateral moves in reaction to what they're seeing or out of fear of what's coming.

opened a Ṁ20 NO at 20% order

Put some small no orders on everything if anyone wants to bet Yes. Would be interested in betting on a similar market with longer timescale, like by the end of year.

@ProjectVictory the creator of this market should put the date back

2026 is just too soon

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules