Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2028
Here are markets with the same criteria:
Will we get AGI before 2024?NO
Will we get AGI before 2025?NO
Will we get AGI before 2026?4%
Will we get AGI before 2027?15%
Will we get AGI before 2028?25% (this question)
Will we get AGI before 2029?50%
Will we get AGI before 2030?58%
Will we get AGI before 2031?61%
Will we get AGI before 2032?64%
Will we get AGI before 2033?69%
Will we get AGI before 2034?73%
Will we get AGI before 2035?74%
Will we get AGI before 2036?76%
Will we get AGI before 2037?77%
Will we get AGI before 2038?78%
Will we get AGI before 2039?79%
Will we get AGI before 2040?80%
Will we get AGI before 2041?82%
Will we get AGI before 2042?81%
Will we get AGI before 2043?82%
Will we get AGI before 2044?82%
Will we get AGI before 2045?84%
Will we get AGI before 2046?85%
Will we get AGI before 2047?87%
Will we get AGI before 2048?90%
Related markets:
Will we get ASI before 2027?6%
Will we get ASI before 2028?8%
Will we get ASI before 2029?12%
Will we get ASI before 2030?18%
Will we get ASI before 2031?32%
Will we get ASI before 2032?40%
Will we get ASI before 2033?50%
Will we get ASI before 2034?55%
Will we get ASI before 2035?60%
Other questions for 2028:
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2028?75%
Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2028?14%
Will we discover alien life before 2028?8%
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2028?9%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2028?16%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2028?7%
Will the Dancing Plague return before 2028?19%
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?27%
Other points of reference for AGI:
Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?50%
Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?40%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?33%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?69%
Will we get AGI before we get room temperature superconductors?83%
Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?85%
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?56%
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?60%
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00