Might need to change the end date

was this supposed to close?

@tobid How big part of Crimea? Over 50%?

@Irigi Perhaps just the Swallow's Nest castle on the picture?

I put it around 10-15%. 20-25% for Donetsk, 30-35% for Mariupol, 35-40% for Melitopol.

This is laughably overvalued.

@ConnorWilliams You're probably right. Why not buy more NO?

the 'end' could be a very long time; maybe a decade if this conflict devolves into an insurgency. Anyhow, a similar question has been asked and the result is about 11% https://manifold.markets/Heaffey/will-ukraine-have-control-over-crim?r=Q2hyaXN0b3BoZXJTY2hyYWRlcg.

The guy writing the article you linked @tobid actually mentions his position is contrarian and more framed as 'advice'. It also seems somewhat political in nature, trying to justify further support from the west for the war.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/28/total-russian-collapse-surprisingly-close/