By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?
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21
Ṁ17222026
8%
chance
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1W
1M
ALL
The question will resolve to yes if the interactive map of the Institute for the Study of War shows that Ukraine controls any part of the Crimea Oblast at the time when a ceasefire (or a peace treaty) is signed.
The Crimea Oblast is as defined in the Ukrainian maps before the 2014 Russian invasion. It includes any outlying islands and other natural formations but excludes rigs or other man-made structures.
If there is no ceasefire or peace signed until the end of 2026, the question will resolve to NA.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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