🎃What will happen in October 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]

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Ṁ6914

Nov 1

99%

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

99%

Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month

98.9%

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

98.6%

dick cheney still alive at end of month

98.3%

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

97%

noam chomsky alive until end of month

85%

Melissa is still a Cat 1+ Hurricane by the 31st

69%

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

55%

In public remarks, Trump speaks three or more consecutive sentences that can pass Microsoft Word 365's default grammar check.

31%

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

destiny goes on joe rogan

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

usa troops enter lebanon

usa troops enter syria

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Hurricane landfall in more than 2 islands:

Jamaica and Cuba is 2 no doubt about these.

Hurricane Melissa did not make an official landfall on any islands in the Bahamas, but its eye passed between Long Island and Rum Cay. However, its powerful winds and rain caused significant damage across the southeastern and central islands.

2 is not more than 2.
Why has this resolved yes? Was there another Island?
@strutheo @Zacd

bought Ṁ97 YES

@strutheo Resolves YES https://variety.com/2025/film/news/spiderman-beyond-the-spiderverse-moves-release-date-1236528682/

@JaySocrates oops i copied it from annold one sorry

@Zacd by the beginning of 31st or by the end of 31st or?
Also what time zone?

@ChristopherRandles end of the 31st (end of month) we will just use EDT time zone i think

@Zacd @strutheo Hurricane Melissa is now over Category 3 and will enter the Gulf soon after passing over Jamaica. Resolves YES?

@Chumchulum no, it is not forecasted to go into the gulf

@Zacd it is currently making landfall in Jamaica

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 26% order

@strutheo Resolves YES

https://malawi24.com/2025/10/24/tanzania-bans-x-twitter-ahead-of-general-election-amid-rising-political-tensions/

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bought Ṁ85 YES

@strutheo Resolves YES? https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/22/meta-layoffs-ai.html

Meta lays off 600 from 'bloated' AI unit as Wang cements leadership

The cuts did not impact employees within TBD Labs, which includes many of the top-tier AI hires brought into Meta this summer, people familiar told CNBC.

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