Follow up from last years edition (https://manifold.markets/TheWabiSabi/what-will-happen-to-me-in-2024-add)
I will be 100% honest on all questions asked below to help you make the right bet.
Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria Clarification:
The outcome must involve having sex with a Tinder match.
The encounter occurs in a new city, indicating a partner that is not an ex.
Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cumulative Requirement:
The outcome must include having sex with three different people,
This must occur on three separate occasions throughout 2025.
Update 2025-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Deciding to get an abortion':
This outcome requires the creator's partner to be pregnant and the decision to get an abortion to be mutual between the creator and their partner.
Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding newly added options:
To resolve YES, the event described by the option must occur:
In 2025.
After the specific option was added to the market.
Update 2025-05-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding outcomes involving 'reading a book':
Audiobooks do not count as 'reading'.
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Use a contraceptive (condom, pill, etc)':
A partner-based method of contraception, specifically an IUD, is a relevant event for this outcome's resolution.
Update 2025-07-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Use a contraceptive (condom, pill, etc)':
The creator has confirmed this answer will be resolved to YES.
The resolution is based on the creator's partner getting an IUD, confirming partner-based methods are sufficient.
Update 2025-08-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Viral social media post criteria:
Manifold counts as social media.
If on Manifold, it should be widely known/"really viral" within the Manifold community.
For other platforms, a threshold of 50k+ views indicates "viral."
Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the answer 'Losing another family member': A girlfriend's relative (e.g., her grandfather) does not count; this would only count if legally married (i.e., an in-law).
Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding an answer about getting a vaccine: The creator received a vaccine but clarified it does not count toward resolving that answer.
1,000
3.00@TheWabiSabi think about this a lot, but financially it's just not smart. Maybe if I find a good deal but sceptical....
@TheWabiSabi still living at my parents, waiting for my 3rd paycheck to start the hunt for a new place, so this is going to be tight
@TheWabiSabi voting gone be a little challenging this year. Need to vote in a city I'm not staying at the moment but will make it work
@TheWabiSabi thinking about maybe getting a new car because of my new job, but finding most of the options too expensive
@TheWabiSabi don't know if I need to resolve this yes. 1 Week after my relationship become official, the grandpa of my girlfriend died, I also attended his funeral in a different country. I have never seen or spoken with this man. Should I resolve this as yes?
@TheWabiSabi my intuition is that they'd only be maybe a family member if you were married (family in law)
@EliH yes, but it should be really know in the Manifold community, like really viral and for the rest maybe 50K+ views?
