๐Ÿ—“๏ธ2025 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (16 DONE)
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Plus
29
แน€13k
2026
16%
First Nintendo direct of the year
18%
the first Solar eclipse of the year
27%
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
31%
south korean president removed from power
31%
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
33%
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
38%
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
39%
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
39%
Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase
41%
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
41%
Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers
41%
Last day of the NFL draft
43%
windows 12 announcement is made
43%
28 years Later releases in USA
43%
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
44%
Manifest 2025 starts
45%
Llama 4 released to the general userbase
45%
English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more
45%
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
45%
claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

  • 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)

  • 2nd event: 2% (happens next)

    ...

  • 100th event: 100% (happens latest)


Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES.

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bought แน€5 NO

@strutheo happy March 16th folks!

New tariffs beginning of 4 March is before EOD Mardi Gras

Hmm Resolved tariff one but not the Mardi Gras one?

@strutheo 16e Released 28 Feb

bought แน€17 NO

@strutheo
24 F9 launches with IM-2 launch a few minutes ago
1 (failed) starship launch

@strutheo
"reportedly start filming this summer ahead of a reported release date of December 2026."
Seems rather vague and not officially announced?
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/dune-3-messiah-movie-release-date-b2701380.html

But if there is lots of information and timeline for filming and release, is there a risk that it is never officially announced? Guess there still has to be some official confirmation?

Grok 3 is currently available exclusively to X Premium Plus subscribers.
@strutheo

@strutheo Why is grok 3 resolved at 1%? Shouldn't it be 9%?

@ChristopherRandles oops yes... Sorry I was on mobile can you fix @mods . Also can we change it so I can unresolve stuff longer than an hour ago

@strutheo although Feb 13 passed it has definitely NOT been fat tuesday / mardi gras. Not sure which takes precedence

@TotalVerb mardi gras isn't until March 4

@TotalVerb oops thanks can @mods unresolved Mardi gras

@strutheo Done.

@strutheo been unresolved. So change title to 8 done?

What tariffs has Trumo enacted on Mexico? He has only threatened to do so

@strutheo @mods can unresolve mexico thanks

@strutheo https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj20g19z2qo
When does 'mass' quantities start?

Also re
trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico
Does it have to be specifically on Mexico. i.e. Would increased steel/alunminium tariff on everywhere outside USA count?

@strutheo Did he enact them to start tomorrow then cancel them before they took effect?
Is that a happened or not?

filled a แน€400 NO at 25% order

So if nothing else happens before mardi gras and my "payout on no" is 100, i would get 80?

@ChrisMillsc5f7 I think it will resolve to 7% as some have already happened. Buy it back up!

See the other answers to check whatโ€™s happened already, and heโ€™s added [6 DONE] to the title. Itโ€™s a little unfortunate they stack at the bottom so you need to see all and scroll down to check

@Gen but it says as of 2025.02.01 resolution %s start at 80

@Gen but see comment on 02.01.

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