Will a Chinese-made sub-7nm chip (e.g., 5nm process node), fabricated using domestically developed EUV lithography, be deployed to run production workloads (such as AI training or inference) for a major Chinese tech company (e.g., Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent, or Baidu) by December 31, 2026?

Resolution Details

This prediction resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026, credible public evidence confirms all of the following:

• A semiconductor chip is produced at a sub-7nm process node (strictly smaller than 7nm, such as 5nm, 3nm, or finer; 7nm does not qualify).

• The chip is fabricated entirely in China using extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology developed domestically, without reliance on foreign EUV machines (e.g., no ASML tools for the EUV steps). Hybrid or smuggled foreign tech does not count—must be verifiably Chinese-origin EUV.

• The chip is deployed in production workloads (e.g., real-world AI training, inference, cloud computing, or other operational commercial applications; prototypes, testing, or R&D do not qualify).

• Deployment is for a major Chinese tech company, defined as firms like Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, ByteDance, or similar scale entities with significant AI/hardware operations.

Evidence must come from reliable sources, such as:

• Official announcements or filings from the company or Chinese government.

• Reports from established international media (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Nikkei Asia).

• Analyses from semiconductor experts or firms (e.g., TechInsights, SemiAnalysis, Counterpoint Research).

If evidence is disputed (e.g., unverified claims from state media without corroboration), it resolves NO or PROB (probabilistic) based on market admin discretion, but prioritizes consensus from multiple independent sources.

Resolves NO if:

• No qualifying chip/deployment by the deadline.

• The EUV is not fully domestic (e.g., uses imported components in critical ways).

• Workloads are not production-scale (e.g., only lab demos).

• Node is 7nm or larger.

This is calibrated based on recent reports of China's EUV prototype in testing as of December 2025, with official targets around 2028-2030 for functional chips. Early resolution possible if definitive proof emerges before the date

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, credible public evidence confirms all of the following:

1. A semiconductor chip is produced at a sub-7nm process node (5nm, 3nm, or finer; 7nm does not qualify)

2. The chip is fabricated entirely in China using domestically developed EUV lithography, without reliance on foreign EUV equipment (e.g., no ASML tools for EUV steps)

3. The chip is deployed in production workloads (real-world AI training, inference, cloud computing, or operational commercial applications; prototypes and R&D do not qualify)

4. Deployment is for a major Chinese tech company (Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, ByteDance, or similar scale entities)

Evidence must come from reliable sources: official company/government announcements, established international media (Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Nikkei Asia), or semiconductor analysis firms (TechInsights, SemiAnalysis, Counterpoint Research). Unverified state media claims without independent corroboration will not suffice.

Resolves NO if no qualifying chip deployment occurs by the deadline, the EUV is not fully domestic, workloads are not production-scale, or the node is 7nm or larger.

Background

As of December 2025, China has demonstrated EUV lithography prototypes in testing phases, with official government targets for functional sub-7nm chips around 2028-2030. This market tests whether China can accelerate this timeline by two years. The challenge involves not only achieving sub-7nm fabrication but doing so with entirely domestically developed EUV technology, which remains a significant technical hurdle given current international export restrictions on advanced semiconductor equipment.

Considerations

The "domestically developed EUV" requirement is strict—hybrid approaches using foreign components in critical ways or smuggled technology do not qualify. Disputed claims require consensus from multiple independent sources rather than relying on single announcements. The production workload threshold excludes lab demonstrations and limited testing, requiring evidence of sustained commercial deployment.