China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
6
Ṁ5652026
39%
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Resolves yes if China is able to produce <= 3 nm chips at a ~70% yield rate. Will settle to credible sources, such as SemiAnalysis reports. Company press reports would not count.
Considerations
"Yield rate" refers to the percentage of functioning chips produced from each silicon wafer. A 70% yield rate is considered reasonably good for semiconductor manufacturing.
Semiconductor production data can be sensitive and sometimes difficult to verify independently, particularly for Chinese manufacturers.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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