AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
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This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2027, the AI safety community successfully advocates for and achieves a significant global slowdown in frontier AI development.
A "significant global slowdown" requires at least two of the following:
A formal international agreement signed by at least 3 of the top 5 AI-producing countries to limit or pause certain types of AI development
Major AI labs (at least 3 of the top 5) publicly committing to and implementing significant voluntary slowdowns
Implementation of substantial regulatory barriers to rapid AI development in at least 3 major AI-producing countries
The slowdown must be explicitly connected to AI safety concerns and must represent a material change from the previous development pace.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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