What will happen in 2026 related to AI?

Ṁ303

2026

83%

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

72%

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

66%

SSI will release a product

56%

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

50%

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

50%

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

50%

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

50%

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

50%

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

50%

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

34%

OpenAI IPO

34%

Anthropic IPO

34%

One of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

34%

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

34%

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

25%

An LLM will beat me at chess

10%

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

Please add questions for what will happen in 2026 related to AI! I've added some clarifications below. If there is ambiguity I will resolve to my best judgement.

Clarifications

"SSI will release a product": It should be generally available in 2026; i.e. no waitlist.

"Nvidia will outperform the S&P": As measured at the end of the year. It's not sufficient for Nvidia to outperform at some point in the year.

"An LLM will beat me at chess": See this market:

“Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP” : according to this source or some other official announcement by the org.

"The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours": At 50% success rate, acoording to this source.