Trump has claimed he will impose a 10% tariff on all countries except China, which will have a 60% tariff.
This market will resolve to YES if Trump wins the presidency, and then he imposes a 10% tariff (or greater) on at least most imports (as measured in dollar terms) to the US from all countries except China.
If Trump imposes a tariff in excess of 10%, that does count as a YES.
If Trump imposes a tariff less than 10%, that does not count.
If Trump does not win the presidency, the market resolves to NO, even if the winner imposes a tariff.
1,000
3.00https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports-by-country
Just to help determine what counts as "most imports" in dollar terms
@Siebe Hungary can’t easily opt out of retaliatory tariffs against the us though, because it’s in a trading bloc