Major internet outage due to undersea cables breaking by end of 2026?
Major internet outage due to undersea cables breaking by end of 2026?
Plus
30
Ṁ35942026
72%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Over 99% of the internet across borders travels through undersea fiber optic cables.
There are about 500 of these cables, and each year about 200 need to be repaired (mostly due to accidents). It is trivial for military to deliberately break these cables. There are in most cases redundancies, but if enough break there could be massive outages across the internet.
An outage affecting a single country will be enough for this market to resolve to YES. An outage that reduces speeds significantly even though there is still connectivity will resolve to YES.
An outage for a reason other than an issue with the undersea cables will NOT resolve the market to YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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bought Ṁ250 YES8mo
Would this count? https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/three-subsea-cables-go-down-in-vietnam-leading-to-widespread-internet-outages/
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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