The German debt brake (Schuldenbremse) is a constitutional rule introduced in 2009 that limits the federal government's structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP and prohibits federal states from taking on new debt. Recent economic challenges and the Ukraine war, have intensified debate about reforming these fiscal rules. Surveys show 55% of Germans support reforming or abolishing the debt brake.
This is a change to the constitution (Grundgesetz) though and requires a 66% vote in the parliament. The center parties (CDU, SPD, Greens) are missing 3 seats for that, so support from more radical parties is necessary.
This market will resolve YES if Germany implements any constitutional changes to the debt brake rules before March 2026. This includes:
Changes to the deficit limits
Modifications to exemption criteria
Complete abolition of the debt brake
The market will resolve NO if:
No changes are made until March, 2026
Only temporary suspensions or emergency measures are implemented without constitutional amendment
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3.00I just noticed I made a mistake in the description and I now changed the "2027" to "2026". Now it is consistent with the title and the closing date.
Was anybody misled that this was about two years instead of one?
In theory Aiwanger could still block it in the federal council. But maybe it is not super likely.
Wie Klingbeil zudem weiter mitteilte, wollen Union und SPD im neugewählten Bundestag noch bis Jahresende eine Reform der Schuldenbremse voranbringen. Dazu solle eine Expertenkommission eingesetzt werden, heißt es in einem Papier zu den Sondierungsgesprächen, auf das sich die Nachrichtenagentur dpa bezieht. source
Just read GG §109 (the paragraph which implemented the debt break). Pretty surprised at the first sentence:
Bund und Länder sind in ihrer Haushaltswirtschaft selbständig und voneinander unabhängig.
It certainly doesn't feel like that has much influence on lived politics.
The Greens proposed to make the necessary constitutional change right now before the Bundestag re-constitutes. https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/reform-schuldenbremse-100.html
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00