Will Germany cancel dual citizenship within the next 5 years?
Will Germany cancel dual citizenship within the next 5 years?
Basic
15
Ṁ900
2030
20%
chance

Background

Germany recently enacted significant citizenship reforms that took effect on June 27, 2024. The new law explicitly allows dual citizenship as a general rule, marking a departure from previous restrictions. This change aims to modernize Germany's citizenship laws and make naturalization more accessible to long-term residents.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if the German government passes legislation or implements policy changes that explicitly prohibit or cancel the ability to hold dual citizenship for German citizens before Jan 1st, 2030. The market will resolve NO if:

  • No such legislation or policy changes are enacted by Jan 1st, 2030

  • Any changes to citizenship laws maintain or expand dual citizenship rights

  • Changes only restrict dual citizenship for specific cases while maintaining it as a general principle

Temporary administrative changes or processing delays that don't fundamentally alter dual citizenship rights will not count as cancellation.

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and
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