If I get tickets for LessOnline/Mystery Summer Camp/Manifest, will I actually go?
If I get tickets for LessOnline/Mystery Summer Camp/Manifest, will I actually go?
9
Ṁ1453
Jun 9
88%
Yes, and I am happy to have spent the money
4%
Yes, but I regret having spent the money
3%
No, and I burn > 20% of the ticket price
4%
No, but I recover >= 80% of the ticket price

For the purpose of this market, I will have "gone" if I am in the US for at least 1 day between may 28 and June 8 (2025).

I want to go to Manifest.

During Manifest I will be living in Ireland. I am not flying to the US for one weekend, so I would also get tickets for LessOnline and the Mystery Summer Camp.

I'm currently in the Netherlands. I'm starting a new job in Dublin next week. I do not yet have an apartment there, but I have arranged something until June 4th. I have been through this before (in Dublin) and finding an apartment was a nightmare. If it takes me too long to find an apartment I will probably not be able to go. It's also possible that I will not be able to go due to not being able to get time off, but this seems unlikely.

Tickets are getting more expensive tomorrow. It's not clear to me if tickets are transferable/refundable, but I have contacted the LessOnline people to ask if they sell ATM options on tickets. For the purpose of this market, if I pay money for an option this counts as buying a ticket. For the purpose of answers 3 and 4, if I buy but don't use an option, I will treat this as if I bought a ticket at the strike price and got a refund for the difference between that and the option.

If I get detained by mr Trump and am unable to resolve the market, I ask mods to resolve this to "Yes, but I regret having spent the money".

  • Update 2025-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cost Overrun Condition:

    • The outcome of the market may be resolved as "Yes, but I regret having spent the money" if I end up spending a lot more than I expected.

#Personal
#Manifest
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


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6d

I have been informed tickets are likely refundable up to 10 days before the event.

7d

To be clear, as a mod I would get the Manifest ticket for free. I would be buying the other 2 tickets (and accommodation/flights).

7d

I bought the tickets. €672.35 total.

6d

@jskf Wooooooo

7d

I think I'm unlikely to regret spending the money unless I'm actually miserable for much of my time in the US.

7d

@jskf Or if I end up spending a lot more than I expected.

7d

@jskf now if only i could fund a week long gang stalking campaign for 400 mana. amazing market opportunities

7d

@Tarl I think that would also resolve this positively

https://manifold.markets/Joshua/manifest-2025-prop-bets

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