the chances seem higher than 5%, even this late in the day.

@persimmon Be careful, not quite sure where you’re heading with this but you want to tread delicately.

@Predictor You’re just instigating. You’re well aware there are at least three options on the table here and only one of them is hairy.

@persimmon I just don’t like where this is heading and where your head is at, that’s all. Makes me weary.

i didn't even read the question, but the number when i bet no is just so much bigger than the number when i bet yes

I hope this didn’t drop 1% today because people are giving credence to the ridiculous “let him resign so Kamala can become the first woman president for a week” idea…

@mqudsi free money for you

Let’s just hope that the American democracy isn’t completely joever… please make the right choice in the eelctions… help yourselves… your allies… Ukraine…. If you abandon us now it’s the same story as with WW2.. don’t make the mistakes of Britain and France…

List of Russian wars and events similar to WW2

Chechnya = Anschluss/saarland

Georgia = Sudetenland

Crimea = Anschluss

Invasion of Ukraine = Poland

Vote for the prevalence of democracy…. Do not sacrifice others for yourselves…. Save yourselves and others… do not throw your allies to the wolves… do not leave the world to fall to the despotic and authoritarian regimes of China, North Korea and Russia…

Trump vows to make peace but he will make peace at the expense of Ukraine…. Not Russia….

(nothing ever happens)

Jill Biden now playing make believe in the White House, like a 5 year old serving tea to a cat. This is getting embarrassing.

@DonutThrow You never replied to my previous offer of a side bet. Care to bet now?

@NGK I am broke, very very broke

sell order at 90%. interested parties may arb with https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-joe-biden-resign-in-his-first as far as I can tell

@Bayesian Ah, there's a third option, which is that he dies before January 20.

And a fourth option is the 25th amendment is invoked - I think that doesn't count as resigning.

So these two markets should add to less than 100%.

oh good point

wait so these are even more arbable than previously thought?

@Bayesian Until someone fixes it 😉

@TimothyJohnson5c16 By buying my NO shares!

@Bayesian It's a very good deal, yes, I just didn't want to keep getting further into this trade because too much of my net worth is now bound up in these two dumb markets.

If loans come back, I'll be able to go back to doing more trades like this

It's going to be so funny when Biden resigns the day after the election and hails the greatest achievement of his administration: American's first black woman president.

The other reason why Biden will resign is that it's better if Harris pardons the Biden crime family than if Biden does it himself, which brings up more constitutional issues.

Care to make a side bet? Biden won’t receive a pardon from Harris.

I’ll bet as much as you like.

I’m only betting “no” here as an arb against my position on https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-joe-biden-resign-in-his-first?r=RGF2aWRGV2F0c29u

Be careful you don't overpay in fees

Oh oh, limit orders only, but thank you