Will a political process toward a full fledged palestinian state begin before the end of 2024?
Will a political process toward a full fledged palestinian state begin before the end of 2024?
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Political process being understood as official discussions aiming to give proper statehood to Palestine
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Needs far more specific criteria to be tradable imo.
On one end of the spectrum the political process is already underway. Israel has made it clear that neither Fatah nor Hamas can be in power before a Palestinian state can be considered.
On the other end, the political process has never been underway because no plan has ever been genuinely viable.
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@PaulBenjaminPhotographer there's certainly not any ongoing official discussions aiming toward giving proper statehood to Palestine. Last time was Camp David summit, iirc.
Can you please provide an hypothetical ambiguous situation where the question would be difficult to resolve?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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