Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg claimed on a podcast

“Probably in 2025, we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of midlevel engineer that you have at your company that can write code.”

Will this happen?

This is a subjective market, so it's reliant on my interpretation and judgement, but it will resolve YES if by the end of 2025, there’s credible evidence or reports of Meta having created or being in possession of a functional “mid-level” AI. My subjective metrics for “mid-level” include but are not limited to:

• Solves Non-Trivial Tasks: It solves non-trivial tasks, not just cookie-cutter or commoditized tasks like is available today.

• Somewhat (Mostly?) Autonomous: It doesn’t need much handholding or human intervention to complete well-defined tasks or to implement review feedback/fix its own bugs.

• Collaborates in Real-World Workflows: It can be embedded within real-world engineering workflows and handle tasks like Git workflows, documentation, and code reviews.

• Real-World Usage by Meta: There are credible reports, internal demonstrations, or announcements confirming Meta is actively using this AI in production or development environments as a substitute or significant complement to mid-level engineers.

• Consensus: A general consensus among industry professionals, researchers, or reputable sources (e.g., academic papers, tech blogs, or industry interviews) that Meta’s AI meets the criteria for performing at a mid-level engineer standard.

It will resolve NO if these criteria are not met, in my best judgment, or if they’re unverifiable by me.

I am hugely biased against this happening so I won't trade in the market. I have also resolved a similar market against my bias in the past so that should give me some credibility - https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-i-consider-nat-friedmans-tweet

FYI I am open to changing the terms of the market and the resolution criteria up to one week after it's created (within the spirit of the original) , based on feedback.