Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Plus
32
Ṁ41352027
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.
China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before the end of 2026?
Same question except:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
26% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2025?
14% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?
36% chance
If Trump wins, will China attack Taiwan before the end of 2026?
27% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
42% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
49% chance
Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by EOY 2025/beginning of year 2026?
8% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025
9% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
19% chance