if he travels between country lines that day I guess it should resolve other? Also, specify time zone.

@Riley12 @Tristan

So far it seems like all reputable media/official sources indicate Assad is in Russia. If that's still the case on Jan 1st, I'll resolve it as Russia even if we don't have any concrete proof like photographs/video.

I guess everyone here is hoping that there is some formal appearance of him on that date? Cos otherwise there will be absolutely no way to know for sure where he is. Maybe he’ll appear on a Russian New Year’s Day gala show on tv?

"Assad is in Moscow after fleeing Syria and will be given aslyum, Russian state media reports"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t?post=asset:b972fb40-dbf3-4cf7-82d5-7ca804314bda#post

Arbitrage? https://manifold.markets/TimothyBandors/assad-dead-in-2024#

Assad dead in 2024?

32% chance. This market resolves YES if Bashar al-Assad, former President of Syria, is confirmed dead before 31 Dec 2024. If he is dead prior to market creation, it still resolves YES. This will resolve NO if credible sources prove he's alive at the end of this year. Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): If Assad's status is unclear on December 31st 2024, the market will be extended until there is proof of life or death.

Lebanon