China invades Taiwan by August 1, 2025?
49
Ṁ28k
Aug 1
1%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by August 1, 2025, there is credible evidence that China has initiated a military invasion of Taiwan. This includes, but is not limited to:

  • Deployment of Chinese military forces onto Taiwanese territory.

  • Sustained military operations targeting Taiwan.

Official statements from the Taiwanese government, reputable international news agencies, or recognized defense organizations confirming such actions will serve as the basis for resolution.

Background

Tensions between China and Taiwan have been escalating, with China conducting military exercises near Taiwan and enhancing its military capabilities. In March 2025, Taiwan's Defense Ministry identified 2027 as a potential year for a Chinese invasion during its annual military drills, reflecting growing concerns over China's intentions. (bloomberg.com)

Despite these developments, some analysts argue that a full-scale invasion in 2025 is unlikely due to China's internal challenges, including economic concerns and the need for further military modernization. (maritime-executive.com)

Considerations

While military activities and rhetoric have intensified, an actual invasion would represent a significant escalation with profound global implications. Traders should monitor official communications and credible news sources for developments leading up to August 1, 2025.

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@traders I've unresolved the market since it was clearly resolved wrong, @MartinGale please do not resolve markets incorrectly again on an alt or on a main account or they will be banned

@mods mana laundering, mis-resolved market, should check before mana is laundered further

@Bandors already returned the bets, my bad im just testing if the site have anti-disinformation ai sort of in case of wrong resolution and have no intention of stealing manas they already unresolved it sorry and peace.

Hi guys i returned the trade for all no bettors, i didnt know that it will actually let me resolved it just like that btw i doubled or gave back the total amount you guys betted thanks and sorry for the trouble just new to manifold peace.

@MartinGale - All good.

@mods - Curious what happened here to let Martin resolve a market that isn't his?

On the upside I can return my heart rate to normal....

@MartinGale For the future, probably the better answer is to unresolve the market. That might be the better approach here...

Source?

Seeing nothing on my news?

Wrong Resolution Sorry Just New To Manifold And Testing On What Works and what doesnt, i thought they have AI to reject disinformation sorry and peace.

@MartinGale If they rejected disinformation, they'd delete at least half of my posts!

@MartinGale how did you resolve someone else's market?

its my old account and tried to resolve it but to be on the safe side i counter bet, so i can pay out the bettors if it actually would work sadlly it did.

Oh shit it happened?

Wrong Resolution Sorry Just New To Manifold And Testing On What Works and what doesnt, i thought they have AI to reject disinformation sorry and peace.

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