Will Karl Lauterbach (german secretary of health) be out of office before the next federal election?

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Will resolve NO, if Karl Lauterbach is still in office when the 2025 federal election is over.

Will resolve YES, if Karl Lauterbach is not in office anymore before the 2025 federal election.

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6mo

@Svenbonne you may wanna extend this now. It looks like a general election isn’t going to happen in ‘24

predictedNO 2y

He had some Covid mishaps, but Covid will be out of the news soon. Legalising Cannabis will be his most talked about project, where he has both popular support and the support of all governing parties. All problems/delays with said project can be (justifiably or not) blamed on the EU, who will meddle with the law. If I am correct public opinion will increase.

predictedYES 2y

I think the consensus is that he's the most likely minister to leave, now that Lambrecht is gone. See e.g.https://www.merkur.de/politik/kanzler-scholz-spd-kummer-lambrecht-rauswurf-cdu-merz-soeder-faeser-ruecktritt-lauterbach-92009347.html or https://www.zdf.de/politik/berlin-direkt/scholz-kabinett-minister-lambrecht-lauterbach-100.html

Why is this so high?

@kottsiek maybe because of critical opinions against Lauterbach in Germany

Will Karl Lauterbach, german secretary of health from the social demokrats, be out of office?

predictedNO 2y

There are no federal elections in Germany in 2026. Maybe change the year in the description to 2025.

@enemel my fault

https://manifold.markets/Svenbonne/will-christine-lambrecht-german-sec?referrer=Svenbonne

@Svenbonne

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