Will Olaf Scholz remain chancellor of Germany after the next federal election?
Will Olaf Scholz remain chancellor of Germany after the next federal election?
Plus
48
Ṁ21kOct 26
1%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This resolves YES if Olaf Scholz is head of the German government formed after the next federal election. The next federal election is scheduled to be in autumn of 2025, but if it happens earlier or later, the outcome will still count for the purpose of this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
NEXT PERSON TO BE ELECTED CHANCELLOR OF GERMANY?
Will Germany form a stable government within a month and a half of elections?
1% chance
Will Olaf Scholz remain the Chancellor of Germany until the end of 2021-2025 term?
1% chance
Who will succeed Olaf Scholz as next Chancellor of Germany?
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Who will be elected German Chancellor following the next general election?
Will CDU party leader Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany after the next election in 2025?
97% chance
Who will be the Vice-Chancellor of Germany in the middle of 2025?
Who will be elected Minister-President of Thuringia after the next state election?
Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030?
8% chance