The creators of the ARC prize already tested OpenAI's new o1-preview and o1-mini models on the prize. The non-preview version of o1 performed substantially better (see below) on OpenAI's math benchmarks and will seemingly be released before EOY. Assuming it's tested on the ARC prize, how well will the full version of o1 perform?

Note 1: I usually don't participate in my own markets, but in this case I am participating since the resolution criteria are especially clear.

Note 2: The ideal case is if the ARC prize tests o1 in the same conditions. If they don't, I'll try to make a fair call on whether unofficial testing matches the conditions closely enough to count. If there's uncertainty, I'll err on the side of resolving N/A.