Will an AI get silver on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
Will an AI get silver on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
Basic
25
Ṁ9072026
86%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market, but silver instead of gold criteria:
Getting gold would mean this market resolves YES, as an AI capable of getting above silver could also get silver.
Wikipedia's description of scoring:
The participants are ranked based on their individual scores. Medals are awarded to the highest ranked participants; slightly fewer than half of them receive a medal. The cutoffs (minimum scores required to receive a gold, silver, or bronze medal respectively) are then chosen so that the numbers of gold, silver and bronze medals awarded are approximately in the ratios 1:2:3. Participants who do not win a medal but who score 7 points on at least one problem receive an honorable mention.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
80% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
60% chance
Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
35% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2027?
88% chance
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027?
86% chance
Will AI win a gold on IMO before it wins a gold on IOI?
76% chance
Will AI get at least bronze on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) before 2026?
91% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2026?
81% chance
Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?
64% chance