Manifold should be 100%: Either it remains open or the mana will be worthless. (Except for option it will start being exchangeable for money)

If Manifold isn't operating anymore, it won't matter if I lose my bet, so I may as well bet it up close to 100%

@CDBiddulph The probability could get low without manifold necessarily closing

@MikhaFischler But then, it would eventually resolve YES, so the initial YES bets will turn out profitable anyway, right ?

@MikhaFischler It just depends on people's psychology. Some people like it to be the "right" probability rather than just the option that's most likely to cash out eventually

the incentivized price is non-epistemic

@Bayesian I mean, a platform could still exist and operate old questions while not opening new questions. So Manifold could in fact resolve no here, or any of these other options could resolve no while still existing.

@Joshua yeah, true! but then mana isn't worth nearly as much within those worlds, no?

ig it could be worth a similar amount within those worlds, or it might be worth more, so in a way the incentives make you epistemically predict to what extent you think the option is non-epistemic? hmMmMmM