2023-02-15 Update: Resolves positively if, by the end of 2027, Twitter has incorporated prediction market services into their platform. Can resolve positively early if Twitter incorporates prediction market functionality ahead of the closing date.
Events that make a positive resolution likely:
Functionality is added such that, in addition to Tweets or alongside a Tweet, users or organizations can create public or private markets (using play or real currency) on questions about future events
Twitter refers to a new capability as a "prediction market"
A service of Twitter's looks and feels like Manifold / PredictIt / PolyMarket's UX
Other resolution details:
If Twitter acquires a prediction market service AND incorporates it into the flagship service, it's possible this could resolve positively
If Twitter acquires a prediction market service and does NOT incorporate it into the flagship service, it's possible this could resolve negatively
2023-08-14 Edit: For purposes of this market, 'Twitter' can be viewed as synonymous with 'X' given the re-branding.
Related:
1,000
3.00Much more bullish on this post-election
Kalshi & Polymarket had their iPhone moment during the election. Both proved to be better signals than pretty much everything else including traditional polling
Elon & Trump both explicitly referenced Polymarket multiple times
Trump’s own family launched a defi project and he spoke at a major Bitcoin conference.
Many of Trump’s biggest donors were crypto people
Gensler is now officially out @ SEC
My main concern was possible regulatory scrutiny (or at least hurdles that prevent 2027 launch) but under the new administration that seems unlikely
Essentially, all the following major criteria have been met
Is Elon aware + interested in prediction markets? ✅
Would he want to incorporate them into X? ✅
Will the SEC / Regulatory bodies allow X to implement it by 2027? ✅
Market should be ~85% imo
Polymarket's possible impact on the election in the direction of Musk's favor should be pushing the price of this market higher.
Just a side note, I have been working on my own open source prediction market platform in Golang, MIT licensed so hypothetically code could be easily replicated from this by any entrepreneurs who lack the skill but have a close connection to the powers that be already that could make this possible.
https://manifold.markets/market/will-socialpredict-be-run-by-two-pu
@PatrickDelaney Interesting! How does it differ from Polymarket (which from my understanding puts markets on-chain & would therefore also be somewhat “open source”)?
@elf Can you use polymarket’s code under an MIT license to deploy your own prediction market platform? My understanding is no, no where near that. You can with socialpredict and a small vps.
I could imagine Twitter allows apps to integrate UI parts like Slack and MSTeams currently allow. Then Manifold could provide an app there. Would that be YES or NO? Yes, because Twitter-the-experience does incorporate a prediction market. No, because Twitter-the-company did not incorporate a prediction market itself; somebody else did.
Thanks for checking. There is a sense in which Twitter-the-experience already incorporates prediction markets given one can post a link or screenshot of other prediction markets in a post - that is not sufficient. In that same vein, a simple UI integration like what you can do on Slack would not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
I'm open to some integration whereby Twitter/X is actively and frequently promoting a 3rd party prediction market that could resolve positively, but I think that looks different from what you are describing.
@CarsonGale I understood: A third party app would resolve YES if Twitter specifically supports it. If they only support it generically like any other app, it would be NO.
Elon advertising it would be „specific support“? Or does he not count as „Twitter“ here?
@marketwise Yes, that seems generally accurate. Also, a positive resolution would require some likelihood of ongoing support. e.g., official Twitter/X accounts posting certain Manifold Markets would not be "incorporation of a prediction market".
Elon would only count in conjunction with other criteria mentioned if his actions are reflective of his specific official capacity at Twitter. But again, him posting a series of 3rd party markets is not sufficient for a YES resolution.
Yeah it's an interesting idea, and I def think there's a large overlap in Manifold & Twitter audiences. I'm not sure exactly how this would work (what are you betting on?)
1. Could be "tweet a question about the future, and people can bet inline on Twitter"
2. Could be "bet on whether this tweet will replicate/be found to be good, in three months"
3. Could be "bet on whether this tweet will get >100 likes"
One important question is also: why do people post on Twitter? What are they trying to get? How about when they post a Manifold market?
Would love to hear y'alls thoughts and other ideas!
@Austin here are some general thoughts on the idea:
Twitter is a large platform with diverse use cases. Prediction market capabilities are likely not appropriate for ~most of Twitter content
Elon seems to personally care about Twitter as a news source, conversation platform, and source of truth - prediction markets provide each of these services in a novel way
The use case seems clear - Twitter users could tweet out prediction markets just like creating a Manifold market, and Twitter users could buy a Twitter 'currency' to predict on them. Community notes could be accompanied by Community predictions.
This feels important for Twitter since, as of now, it basically acts as the public square. Anything that grounds the public square more to the real world seems important
FWIW, if I'm Elon, this is the last thing on my mind during a make-or-break period of time for Twitter's survival. Not something that is particularly likely to improve profitability or bring back / add new advertisers. But, if markets improve and Twitter is still around, this is something that seems to meet Elon's stated goals for owning Twitter
If prediction markets could use real money, this suddenly becomes a much more interesting way to monetize Twitter
In the meantime, prediction markets could be an interesting Twitter Blue feature
@Austin I think you could say things like "Will Biden be the nominee" then add a market, as we do here.
Stop thinking about tweets, start thinking about the ability to make a new kind of tweet.
@Austin "I def think there's a large overlap in Manifold & Twitter audiences"
I think most Manifold users are on Twitter but very few Twitter users are on Manifold
@JoshuaBlake Given the relative sizes of both platforms, I'm not sure how it could be otherwise.
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Carson Gale
@NathanpmYoung @RichardHanania @elonmusk @ManifoldMarkets https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-twitter-incorporate-a-predicti?r=Q2Fyc29uR2FsZQ
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Carson Gale
@NathanpmYoung @RichardHanania @elonmusk @ManifoldMarkets https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-twitter-incorporate-a-predicti?r=Q2Fyc29uR2FsZQ