Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between now, and December 31, 2025, if either India or Pakistan issue a formal declaration of war against the other.
Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following clarification regarding the resolution criteria:
A formal declaration of war is strictly required.
The following events, on their own, do not constitute a formal declaration of war for the purposes of this market:
Border skirmishes
Surgical strikes
Proxy wars that lack a formal declaration of war by either India or Pakistan against the other.
Only a public, official declaration of war by the government of either India or Pakistan against the other will cause this market to resolve to Yes.
1,000
3.00
@SvenHoek I got that casus belli in civ VI to declare war all the time. I thought that is how it works?
@Predictor lol. I have no idea what their respective constitutions require for formal declarations.
Also, the speed of modern war almost leaves no time to gather all the politicians for debate, approval, etc...