Which of these military conflicts will escalate to war in 2025?
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2026
16%
Azerbaijan / Armenia
20%
Israel / Iran
13%
United States / Iran
10%
India / Pakistan
24%
Balochistan / Anyone
37%
Central African Republic / Anyone
22%
Bangladesh / Anyone
36%
Iraqi Conflict
18%
Nigeria / Cameroon
50%
Kurdistan / Anyone

Any number of these conflicts might resolve Yes this year, once they enter the Wars or Major Wars category on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict. So if the U.S. and Israel declare war on Iran and start accruing losses in one Wikipedia entry, both of those pairings could resolve Yes together. Multiple belligerents fighting as part of a broader conflict with a different Wiki heading still count as long as their (para)militaries are actually fighting each other. So, the Arab-Israeli conflict in 2024 did count for Israel/Lebanon but did not count for Israel/Iran. "Anyone" conflicts can resolve to any conflict involving the listed country. At the end of the year, all unresolved conflicts will resolve No.

A conflict will only resolve N/A if the definition of the countries involved becomes broadly disputed in a high traffic trading event with no reasonable solution after asking mods. One guy misreading the wikipedia rules won't result in an N/A, but 12 people arguing about a 5-way civil war with publicly denied international intervention might. If a wiki entry is added to the Wars or major Wars category merely because of a retroactive addendum to its 2024 numbers, that will not be sufficient to resolve it Yes for 2025. Coterminous states such as Rojava count for their synonyms (in this case, Kurdistan).

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What is Balochistan in this context? Just the Pakistani province?

@PoqrikHelix Yes, and fortunately it's already named in the lesser conflicts.

Why is this so high? Trump doesn't want to get involved in wars in the Middle East.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 It's just a new market with a ton of liquidity.

N/S Korea

China/Taiwan

@Panfilo this includes Rojava right?

@TheAllMemeingEye Absolutely. Anything coterminous with Kurdistan according to Wikipedia.

@Panfilo thanks ๐Ÿ‘

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