Will Claude 3.5 Opus beat OpenAI's best released model on the arena.lmsys.org leaderboard?
Will Claude 3.5 Opus beat OpenAI's best released model on the arena.lmsys.org leaderboard?
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OpenAI's best released model could be GPT-4, GPT-4o, or something else. It does not count as an OpenAI model unless it's made available to the public to try, and is known to be from OpenAI (e.g. the model can not be a secret, pseudonymous release). If arena.lmsys.org is not available at the time, the successor site or most similar leaderboard will be used.
Resolves yes if Claude 3.5 Opus is ranked above all OpenAI models 1 week after it is put on the leaderboard.
Update 2025-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Models must be listed on lmarena to be counted.
Examples:
o1 pro does not count since it's not on the arena.
Regular o1 does count.
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If the model is not on lmarena, then it will not count. For example, o1 pro does not count now since it's not on the arena. Regular o1 does count.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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