The "all of Canada" condition just utterly kills it.

Most of Canada becoming part of the US is fairly outlier, but even in those scenarios, the probability mass sits on Quebec remaining outside the US by some mechanism.

@SEE The US let's Quebec be autonomous? What leverage do they have to force that? Also, of what benefit would it be for Quebec to be sovereign?

@RJDoesIt_ If we're assuming a deal requiring Canada's consent ("a signed agreement by both parties"), the first obvious point of leverage is the portions of the Canadian constitution that require the unanimous consent of all ten provinces to amend, and which are incompatible-as-written with Canada ceasing to exist. The second point of leverage is Quebec rushing though an independence referendum (under the 1998 Reference Re Secession of Quebec formula of "a clear majority on a clear question") and thus creating an obligation for Canada to negotiate Quebec's secession from Canada.

(It is theoretically possible for the Supreme Court of Canada to rule on a proposed US annexation deal in ways that prevent either point of leverage from being used, but they're not particularly plausible given the existing precedents, even in a world where Canada is consenting to be annexed by the US.)

As far as the benefit of sovereignty to Quebec, it would be the ability to preserve and defend local language and culture without having to deal with an Anglophone federal government. The Quebecois have enough discomfort with being in Canada (where they have a bunch of explicit constitutional guarantees and make up almost a quarter of the population) that they voted 49.42% for independence (45.38% of all registered voters) in 1995. The discomfort with being in the United States, with fewer constitutional guarantees and being far more outnumbered by Anglophones, would be much higher.

@SEE thank you for your detailed response, and all the additional information.

You make a strong case for why Quebec might want their independence.
Now imagine, theres's a legitimate military threat from an adversary. Who will defend Quebec? If the rest of Canada cedes to the US, Quebec could say, we're like Switzerland but I don't see that. Rather I see them being forced to follow greater Canada for the reason that otherwise, they'd be out of the military protection.

@RJDoesIt_ Quebec's language laws are not compatible with the first amendment.

The market would be better if it answered a few questions:

• What if the presidential inauguration date is changed from Jan 20, 2029? What if it is suspended/postponed indefinitely?

• What if only, say, Alberta joins the US?

• What if the two countries unite under the Canadian Constitution, complete with King Charles III and everything?

• What if both countries dissolve into a new federation that doesn't follow either predecessor's federal constitution?

@BrunoParga sure:
- The inauguration date is the cutoff, so if the date changes, that's the new date for the close of this market. Same for postponed or suspended, so will this market be. (very unlikely, let's be honest)
- Has to be ALL of canada, not a providence ceding, good question.
- If (hilarous notion) America joins under Canada, I'll come to your house and be your maid for a year and this would resolve to 'No'
- If both countries dissolve into something else or smaller factions, this resolves to 'No"

thanks for the humor and the chance to clarify.

@RJDoesIt_ the likelihood of the inauguration changing to extend the President's time in office is at the highest it's ever been.

And I think the odds of annexation are pretty comparable in either direction - especially since Manifold probabilities won't go lower than 1%.

@BrunoParga well, so long as the resolution conditions are clear, we're all good.
I'm just hoping the market gets over 100 traders to pay for itself and i'll call the mana i staked as a loss, but it's just a wild premise and that's what I like to do for markets. But sure, if the inauguration changes, then the market extends, or modifies accordingly.